In 2008, the EU27 average LE at birth was estimated to be 74.9 years for males and 81.4 years for females (Table currently (Table1).1). Further gains are projected mostly from lower mortality at older ages. Increasing trends of life expectancy do not however pre-empt a healthy longevity. In 2008 on EU27 average healthy life years (HLY) at birth was estimated as 60.6 years for men and 61.8 years for women (Table (Table1).1). The significant gap between HLY and LE exist among all Member States (MSs) for both men and women – in 2008 14.4 years for men and 19.6 for women – as shown in Figures Figures11 and and2.2. The healthy years represented around 81% and 76% of the total life expectancy at birth for men and women respectively (Table (Table1).1).
Values for LE and HLY at birth showed significant differences among Member States, however the spread of HLY at birth was much greater than of LE, observing a gap of nearly 18 years for men and 20 years for women (Table (Table22). Table 1 Life expectancy and healthy life years at birth within the European Union, 2008 and projections under different scenarios for 2020 Table 2 Health inequalities between Member States within the EU measured by HLY gap, 2008 and projections under different scenarios for 2020 Such inter-country differences in values of LE and HLY across the EU make it difficult to model any EU level projections. Compression of morbidity Under this scenario, the study predicted that life expectancy and HLYs for men would grow on average at nearly same 2-year pace by 2020 (Table (Table1).1). For women, LE and HLYs would increase on average by 1.
6 and 1.4 years accordingly by 2020. The expected years with disability would remain unchanged (14.4 years for men; 19.8 years for women by 2020). The HLY/LE ratio would improve from 80.8% to 81.3% for men and from 75.9% to 76.4% for women. In relative terms (HLY/LE%), the remaining healthy lifespan would increase only by 0.5% for both men and women. This scenario foresees a very slight reduction of health inequalities among the MSs, namely the HLY gap, which is defined as the difference between the highest and lowest HLY, would decrease by 1.4 years for men and by 1.2 years for women, reaching 16.3 years and 18.4 years respectively (Table (Table22). Expansion of morbidity Similar to the previous scenario, life expectancy would increase by 2.1 years and 1.
6 years for men and women respectively by 2020, while HLYs would remain unchanged (Table (Table1).1). The expansion of morbidity would imply an increase in the expected years with disability of 2.1 years in men and 1.6 years in women. This would result in a deterioration of the HLY/LE AV-951 ratio for both men and women from 80.8% to 78.6% and from 75.9% to 74.5% respectively. The proportion of life in good health would be reduced: 2.2% and 1.4% loss of good health for men and women respectively.